Posted by Rob Weinert-Kendt at 05/28/10

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Denzel and Viola should start polishing their Tony acceptance speeches, and Memphis and La Cage aux Folles can start booking the congratulatory ads, if the critics surveyed by the first annual StageGrade Tony Poll can be believed. There are few sure things in show business, of course, but if the critics polled by StageGrade are right, these are some easy bets in a season where the musical competition has been weak and the play competition comparatively strong.

Of course, not every critic thinks those who will take home the Tony on June 13 should be in the winners’ circle. And that’s where the fun--or at least, the drama--begins: For the first time in 45 years, critics have been excluded from the roster of Tony voters (a select few will be back next year, thanks to some lobbying efforts), which means that this year’s poll has even more to say than usual about the disconnect between the likely tastes of Tony voters and the critics. Indeed, as you’ll see from the comments below, critics object, often passionately, not only to the likely favorites of Tony voters but to the picks--or, more exactly, to the non-picks--of Tony nominators. As Jonathan Mandell, a critic for The Faster Times who abstained from predictions in the “will win” column, put it: “Since critics are no longer Tony voters…I would have to understand the mindset and politics of the people who get to vote this year in order to hazard a guess as to which nominees will win.”

Without further ado, dear readers, here are the results of our poll of the major Tony categories. Feel free to use it to get an edge in your office Tony pool! (Note: The "winners" in each category represent simple majorities and a few straight ties, with commentary to account for split votes.)

BEST PLAY
Nominees: In the Next Room or the vibrator play, Next Fall, Red, Time Stands Still
Will win: Red
Should win: Next Fall
Most critics think John Logan's Mark Rothko bio-play Red will win; as TheaterMania editor-in-chief Brian Scott Lipton puts it, “It’s intellectual yet accessible, and very well performed,” and Just Shows To Go You’s Patrick Lee quips: “The easy-to-tour two-hander snob hit Red has all the heat right now.” A sizeable minority, though, put their money on Geoffrey Nauffts' domestic dramedy Next Fall, which is also their top choice for most deserving. But David Rooney, who was Variety’s lead critic for most the past season, speaks for many when he points out, “The season's best new plays were Off-Broadway: When the Rain Stops Falling, Circle Mirror Transformation, Orphans’ Home Cycle and Brother/Sister Plays among them.”



BEST MUSICAL
Nominees: American Idiot, Fela!, Memphis, Million Dollar Quartet
Will Win: Memphis
Should Win: Memphis
Don’t let critics’ certainty fool you here: Though they agree almost unanimously that this hit musical about rock ’n’ roll’s interracial genesis will win, they’re not very enthusiastic about it. Consider: New York Observer’s Jesse Oxfeld, who favors Fela!, calls this “a horribly depressing category…None of the nominees really deserves to be called a Best Musical.” David Rooney prefers American Idiot (“far and away the most viscerally charged new show on Broadway”) but agrees that in this case “the least offensive show seems likely to win by default.” Some critics are more sanguine about the show; as TheaterMania’s Lipton succinctly puts it, Memphis has "the total package, will play well on the road, and appeals to all ethnic/age groups," but Talkin’ Broadway’s Matthew Murray words it more bluntly: “[Memphis] is the only one--the only one--with an original score.” (More on this point below.)



BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL
Nominees: Fela!, Memphis, Million Dollar Quartet, Everyday Rapture
Will Win: Memphis (Joe DiPietro)
Should Win: Everyday Rapture (Dick Scanlan and Sherie Rene Scott)
There’s more grumbling about Memphis’ inevitable win here, but this time many critics have a script they like better, even as they admit it’s unconventional: Scott’s bio-musical Everyday Rapture, written with Thoroughly Modern Millie scribe Scanlan, which the Observer’s Oxfeld calls “the only nominated book that isn’t actively bad…Even better, it’s actually quite good: deftly constructed and very funny.” David Barbour of Lighting & Sound America agrees: “Personally, I think Everyday Rapture has an incredibly well-thought-out script, but I don’t see it winning.” Others are less happy about the choices here. As The Faster Times’ Mandell tartly says, “There is nothing that says an award has to be given every year in every category.”



BEST ORIGINAL SCORE (MUSIC AND/OR LYRICS)
Nominees: The Addams Family, Enron, Fences, Memphis
Will Win: Memphis (Joe DiPietro and David Bryan)
Should Win: Memphis (Joe DiPietro and David Bryan)
The musical-category gripes come to a head here, and not only because so many critics are non-fans of Memphis. This year’s “new score” offerings included so few brand-new musicals that Tony nominators included underscoring for the non-musicals Fences and Enron, making it, according the New York Post’s Elisabeth Vincentelli, “The most preposterous category this year…It should have been scrapped.” It was such a detested idea, in fact, that a third of the polled critics chose “none of the above” in the “should win” column. Some, like Backstage’s Erik Haagensen, think that "play scores should have their own separate category, as that's a very different job from writing a score for a musical," while David Rooney suggests another a solution: “Perhaps it’s time to revisit the rules to allow pre-existing material to be considered when it's sufficiently reshaped in a fresh context, as in American Idiot or Fela!." Meanwhile, Talkin’ Broadway’s Murray casts a lonely vote for a dark horse: “I think enough people like The Addams Family enough that the voters will throw it a bone by default.”



BEST REVIVAL (PLAY)
Nominees: Fences, Lend Me a Tenor, The Royal Family, A View From The Bridge
Will Win: Fences
Should Win: A View From the Bridge
Critics say both revivals are strong, but a slight majority prefer A View From the Bridge. What gives Fences the "will win" edge? It's still running. As Patrick Lee puts it, "The Miller packed 'em in at the Cort this season, but the Wilson is packin' 'em in right now." David Rooney speaks up for the also-rans: "The Roundabout/Long Wharf Glass Menagerie should have gone to Broadway and been nominated; and Brighton Beach Memoirs should have stuck around long enough to be a contender."



BEST REVIVAL (MUSICAL)
Nominees: Finian’s Rainbow, La Cage aux Folles, A Little Night Music, Ragtime
Will Win: La Cage aux Folles
Should Win: La Cage aux Folles
Critics generally like this Menier Chocolate Factory import--as TheaterMania's Lipton puts it, it "seemed unnecessary before it arrived, and now it seems totally necessary"--so they're more on board with what they see as its inevitable win than they are with Memphis'. A few go down fighting for other contenders: "Finian's Rainbow was much smarter in the way it updated a dated and offensive book," says Faster Times' Mandell, while LS&A's Barbour opines, "Ragtime’s short run is one of the great miscarriages of justice in my view."



BEST PERFORMANCE, LEADING ACTOR, PLAY
Nominees: Jude Law (Hamlet), Alfred Molina (Red), Liev Schreiber (A View from the Bridge), Christopher Walken (A Behanding in Spokane), Denzel Washington (Fences)
Will Win: Denzel Washington, Fences
Should Win: (tie) Liev Schreiber, A View from the Bridge, and Alfred Molina, Red
Echoing their votes in the play-revival category, critics generally think Denzel will win but slightly prefer either Schreiber's turn in the Miller revival or Molina's "powerhouse" turn as painter Rothko. Village Voice contributor Eric Grode explains Washington's likely win as a classic "Hollywood ending: Movie star comes to Broadway (in Julius Caesar), gets torn to shreds, licks his wounds and returns--and is much better. Hard not to reward that." The Post's Vincentelli voices a lonely dissent: "Justin Bartha should have been nominated...for Lend Me a Tenor, but comic performances aren’t as respected as dramatic ones."



BEST PERFORMANCE, LEADING ACTRESS, PLAY
Nominees: Viola Davis (Fences), Valerie Harper (Looped), Linda Lavin (Collected Stories), Laura Linney (Time Stands Still), Jan Maxwell (The Royal Family)
Will Win: Viola Davis, Fences
Should Win: Viola Davis, Fences
This one isn't even close, in either the "will" or the "should" column. Critics have kind words for Lavin and Linney, and David Rooney wishes that Judith Ivey's performance in the Off-Broadway Glass Menagerie were in the running, but as LS&A's Barbour puts it: "Davis gives that character a special power lacking in the original production, and people are recognizing that."



BEST PERFORMANCE, LEADING ACTOR, MUSICAL
Nominees: Kelsey Grammer (La Cage aux Folles), Sean Hayes (Promises, Promises), Douglas Hodge (La Cage aux Folles), Chad Kimball (Memphis), Sahr Ngaujah (Fela!)
Will Win: Douglas Hodge, La Cage aux Folles
Should Win: Chad Kimball, Memphis
There's little dissent about who will get this one; as TheaterMania's Lipton puts it, "A very close race of strong performers, but Hodge hits the heart." As for who should get it, LS&A's Barbour sums up the pro-Chad Kimball vote, calling his performance "unique," while Talkin' Broadway's Murray feels that Fela!'s Sahr Ngaujah is the more likely winner (though he in fact prefers Hodge's costar Kelsey Grammer). TheaterMania's David Finkle, another pro-Kimball vote, could be speaking of Hodge and Ngaujah as well when he writes: "Who says you need stars in musicals? Sometimes you make stars in musicals." Finally, David Rooney speaks up for non-nominees John Gallagher (American Idiot) and Nathan Lane (Addams Family), whom Rooney says is "heroically carrying a mediocre show on his shoulders."



BEST PERFORMANCE, LEADING ACTRESS, MUSICAL
Nominees: Kate Baldwin (Finian’s Rainbow), Montego Glover (Memphis), Christiane Noll (Ragtime), Sherie Rene Scott (Everyday Rapture), Catherine Zeta-Jones (A Little Night Music)
Will Win: Catherine Zeta-Jones, A Little Night Music
Should Win: (tie) Sherie Rene Scott, Everyday Rapture, and Montego Glover, Memphis
Zeta-Jones' Hollywood glamour is seen as her trump card, even for a show that got mixed reviews and is already scheduled to close a week after the Tonys. TheaterMania's Lipton says: "Star power like one almost never sees; the voters are bedazzled." Some critics also think she deserves it, but capturing much stronger advocates are Rapture's Scott and Memphis' Glover ("the only good thing in Memphis," according to the Observer's Oxfeld). Backstage's Haagensen, referring to the previous decisions of the Drama Desk and Drama League awards, gallantly offers, "I will be very happy if Zeta-Jones and the terrific Montego Glover manage their third tie of the season."



BEST DIRECTION OF A PLAY
Nominees: Michael Grandage (Red), Sheryl Kaller (Next Fall), Kenny Leon (Fences), Gregory Mosher (A View From the Bridge)
Will Win: Kenny Leon, Fences
Should Win: Gregory Mosher, A View From the Bridge
Critics repeat their Fences/View two-step, while also advocating some pet favorites in the "should win" column: David Rooney laments the non-eligibility of David Cromer's "brilliant Broadway debut on Brighton Beach Memoirs," while Faster Times' Mandell casts a vote for Sheryl Kaller, saying, "Next Fall deserves some recognition." A few think Michael Grandage should get the Tony--and, according to TheaterMania's Finkle, not for Red but for his un-nominated direction of Hamlet.



BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL
Nominees: Christopher Ashley (Memphis), Marcia Milgrom Dodge (Ragtime), Terry Johnson (La Cage aux Folles), Bill T. Jones (Fela!)
Will Win: Terry Johnson, La Cage aux Folles
Should Win: Terry Johnson, La Cage aux Folles
Here's another bow to the unstoppable La Cage, but some dissenters pipe up for Ragtime's Marcia Milgrim Dodge and for Fela!'s Bill T. Jones. Indeed, Faster Times' Mandell says that if Jones doesn't win "it'll be a scandal." Talkin' Broadway's Murray sums up the pro-Terry Johnson wing by saying, "He found the best balance between an approach that really serves the text and fresh, revival-y thinking," while Patrick Lee puts it more waggishly: "Johnson made on-the-cheap look like a valid artistic choice." And it's not just David Rooney lamenting the non-nomination of American Idiot director Michael Mayer; quips the Post's Vincentelli, "That he wasn’t nominated is just beyond the beyondo."



BEST CHOREOGRAPHY
Nominees: Rob Ashford (Promises, Promises), Bill T. Jones (Fela!), Lynne Page (La Cage aux Folles), Twyla Tharp (Come Fly Away)
Will Win: Twyla Tharp, Come Fly Away
Should Win: Twyla Tharp, Come Fly Away
Most critics think Tharp will win for her Sinatra anthology show; as TheaterMania's Finkle put it, "No real competition here, is there?" But though a small majority think it's a fair choice, there's plenty of contention beneath the surface in the "should win" column. The Observer's Oxfeld casts his vote for Promises' Ashford, saying he "made a terrible show look fantastic"; a few think Page's La Cage steps deserve the nod; and a good number think Jones' Fela! choreography will and/or should get this Tony, as it's unlikely to get others. Finally, another non-nominee has not one but two advocates: Steven Hoggett's overlooked choreography for American Idiot, says Eric Grode, "had the guts to try replicating the dancing of contemporary youth."

Thanks to participating critics Jesse Oxfeld (New York Observer), David Rooney (formerly of Variety, current New York Times contributor), Matthew Murray (Talkin' Broadway), David Sheward (Backstage), Jonathan Mandell (The Faster Times), Eric Grode (contributor to Village Voice), Brian Scott Lipton (TheaterMania), Patrick Lee (Just Shows To Go You and Show Showdown), Elisabeth Vincentelli (New York Post), Erik Haagensen (Backstage), David Finkle (TheaterMania), and David Barbour (Lighting & Sound America).